Economic Bloggers Have Mixed View
The nation's leading economics bloggers have a more balanced outlook than last quarter, according to a new Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation survey. Anticipating positive movement in the gross domestic product and other key indicators, 59 percent of economics bloggers who responded to the second Kauffman Economic Outlook: A Quarterly Survey of Leading Economics Bloggers described the economy's overall condition as "mixed," with the rest evenly split between positive and negative assessments.
Interestingly, while 63 percent of surveyed bloggers say the federal government is too involved in economic matters, 80 percent want Congress to create a visa for entrepreneurial immigrants -- a seemingly strong endorsement.
For this second survey of economics bloggers, the Kauffman Foundation sent invitations to more than 200 leading economics bloggers as identified in the Palgrave’s econolog.net December 2009 rankings. The Foundation surveys the bloggers each quarter about their views of the economy, entrepreneurship and innovation.
The Outlook report also features questions from five economics bloggers on issues ranging from the long-range U.S. budget outlook to the future viability of China's economy. Respondents answered questions posed by Tyler Cowen, Marginal Revolution; Ken Houghton, Angry Bear; Arnold Kling, EconLog; Mark Perry, Carpe Diem; and Mark Thoma, Economist's View.
Research highlights include:
- The bloggers expect the greatest growth over the next three years to be in interest rates, with the U.S. budget deficit expected to grow at about the same rate as global output, U.S. inflation and U.S. employment. Three-year projections also include expected increases in poverty and inequality levels in the United States and potentially a slight decline in U.S. competitiveness.
- Respondents rate overall business conditions as “mostly fair, partly bad,” but a majority believe conditions for small business in particular are “bad” or “very bad.”
- 63 percent of the surveyed bloggers say the federal government is too involved in economic matters. Half favor more financial regulation, compared to 10 percent who favor increased business regulation, and 94 percent oppose higher taxes or investment.
- A strong majority of bloggers – 80 percent – want Congress to “create a visa for entrepreneurial immigrants.”
- 80 percent of respondents expect a U.S. debt crisis by 2050, but 75 percent of those do not expect the dollar to lose its place as the world’s reserve currency.